What course would you suggest?

[BARLI]

Hey everyone. Just wanted to ask you, what course would you suggest for the begginer in trading commodities? What do you guys think of Larry Williams course here: http://www.ctiming.com/Products/Crackin ... y_Code.asp
he says that he is revealing Turtle trader's secret as well in his version.
I would appreciate your responses!

thanks Sasha

[William]

I have never dealt with the guy or taken any of his courses but i would be very leery of a guy who is offering to teach you something that is available for free on the Internet. Also, in terms of his success as a trader, i wouldn't believe the hype until i saw his audited trading journal. Also, the fact that he has been a trading legend for the past 40 years, and is busy selling people information that he paid 375, 000 for a couple hundred dollars also SMELLS really fishy..

Something entitled "Cracking the Money Code" sounds fishy, right off the bat...he is playing on our inherent desire to find the holy grail of trading. My thoughts, why would he sell the code, if it were that profitable.

Being new to system trading is very exciting but also a little dangerous, good money could be spent on worthless or even damaging advice, i would take your time and tread carefully. Although i am still very much a beginner, i have learned that there are no easy ways to learning how to trade properly. Each time you learn something, you realize you need to research two more things.

I would recommend you print out the Original Turtle Trading Rules, read it once a day for the next 5 days, then read all of the links on this forum about the OTT rules and how to apply them. Then i would download the free VeriTrader 1.1 Demo version and start fiddling around with the system, learning how each parameter affects the output of the system. The best way to learn is to read a little bit and then get your hands dirty with some testing. Once you start down that road, i believe this forum will have a lot of useful posts. Once you get a better feel for how one type of breakout trend following system works, i think you would be well on your way to understanding the basic elements of system trading. Also, i would start picking up some of the recommended books on this forum.

Just because you can grab the low hanging fruit, doesn't mean you should...Promises of being given the secrets to trading and then making tons of money, when you really think about it, is rather ridiculous.

[verec]

[...]he is revealing Turtle trader's secret[...]

Here we are ...

I have not purchased every single course on the planet, but there's one I would recommend, only if you're after making money as a business for yourself rather than as a foolish attempt to test your luck.

I can only recommend that particluar course (and none of the others despite of my high opinion about the author, I've not purchased (much less studied) the others ... yet).

Go to Dr Van Thap site and think for yourself whether the "Trader Peak Performance Course" is for you.

I can give you, for free, the biggest secret ever in successful trading: there is no secret!. And that's what disapoints so many people that they keep looking, anyway, convinced that "there must be something, otherwise everybody would be rich, right?"

And this is such a common confusion! If there is a secret, it it lies burried deep down in yourself. Van Tharp course helped me unearth it, and see that my main problem ... was me!

At some point, I may purchase his next course build a trading system that is right for you, but that is premature at the moment. The turtle rules, as given away for free by c.f. are an extraordinary field of investigation and experiments! The only thing you'll need extra, is the motivation to pull the trigger when you should, and resisting the temptation to override the system when you shouldn't.

Van Tharp's course may help you with this, but only if you're prepared to put in a lot of hardwork, not only technical, but also pyschological in learning to know yourself.

I don't believe there's a shortcut, mo matter how much money you invest in a system, that system is only worth your ability to follow it. And that's where Van Tharp comes in.

Usual disclaimer about not being affiliated with Van Tharp, etc... just a very grateful customer who discovered he didn't know himself, before starting the course!

[Warning: 5 volumes, about 1000 pages altogether, if you study it seriously, say 2 hours/day, you'll need at least one month to accept what he teaches you, and at least another month to make his teaching yours. If you don't have that kind of time to invest, you should probably consider something other than trading]

[BARLI]

Verec and William, thanks a lot for your replies!

[bobby]

Sasha, I read your question and I also read William's response. First of all, I have been studying Larry Williams' "Cracking the Money Code" course for the past 3 months. I'm new to trading and I live in Japan where it is next to impossible to find someone knowledgable about futures trading. Searching the Internet for information only left me more confused. I wanted someome to teach me a simple system for trading commodities and also educate me about what I shouldn't do. I believe the course was worth every penny. Throughout the 4 video tapes that come with the text, Larry time and again advises paper trading before the real thing, using stops on EVERY trade, and stresses money management. He even says he's not the best trader in the world, but that he owes his success to smart money management. If anything, his approach seems to be rather conservative. He does not promise wealth and he has not tried to sell me any other products. It is, of course your decision, but I believe if you want to learn how to get started in trading his course will give you a good foundation.

I agree with William that you have to be careful, and it is good to educate yourself by reading, but you have to trust somebody sometime. May as well trust someone who actually trades. As far as him "revealing" Turtle secrets, here's the deal. In one of the course videos he said HE paid for those a long time ago as a young man (he's in his 60's now and has been trading for over 40 years). Then he mentions what the Turtles' trend following system entails, and then teaches how he trades a modified version of that. Out of the 4 hours of videos I think he talked about it for about 10 minutes. He's not selling the Turtle sytem, believe me. I'm not a Larry Williams advocate or anything, I just don't want false rumors to get started by people who have not seen the course.
I hope this helps.

[RangeRover]

Sasha-

I have not bought Larry's "Cracking the Money Code" course, but I did purchase his "Batting .800" materials some years ago. I'd be very careful, as he seems to fall prey to many common fallacies in the "Batting .800" course, among them:

1 - Batting .800, i.e. being "right" 80% of the time. He emphasizes rightness over making money off lower frequency (but higher reward) moves. I don't think this will get you far if your looking for long term trading systems.

2 - Gamblers fallacy, i.e. I've lost ten times in a row, this time _has_ to be a winner, so I'll double up my wager. While it is possible for some systems that the serial correlation might work like this, he made a broad statement to this effect.

3 - Law of small numbers, i.e. this situation has occurred 15 times in the last umpteen years of daily SP data with 12 winners and a net profit for the fifteen trades. Extrapolating from a small data set can be dangerous; if his setup only occurred 15 times, I'd argue there may not be enough trades to draw a conclusion.

4 - Almost no discussion of money management.

5 - A profit objective angle measuring do-hickey. The only hitch is that his "Target Shooter" gives different objectives depending in the scaling for price and time on your chart. Doh!

There are others as well, but I don't have his stuff in front of me at the moment. Basically, I wouldn't pay money for his stuff, based on what I've seen.

On the other hand, it was early in my pursuit of system trading concepts. Fortunately, I didn't trade based on Larry's "systems" or those of Ken Roberts and others, but I did learn things: mostly "how's a guy supposed to use this?" sort of things, and moved on to more useful ideas.

Your mileage may vary, but I'd count the money as thrown away; if you do happen to find something useful, it will be a pleasant surprise. Let us know what you think if you do order it.

RR

[DrHendricks]

I too purchased the batting .800 material and can say that RangeRover is exactly right.

Well said.

David

[leonardo]

I've known Larry Williams for a long time, and bought a few things from him over the last 30 years. And usually found something useful from them.

He does trade. Which is a lot more than most purveyors of information do.

He has tried out more things with real money than anyone else I know.

I remember reading a quote from him about what the best advice he could give his children after all the things he saw and experienced as a trader. His answer, "Be a broker!"

After checking out the website link above, I found that he offers a refund if not satisfied:

Just buy the course and try it out yourself; test it "on paper." Prove to yourself that you can make money without investing any real money. If at the end of 90 days you find that "Cracking the Money Code" isn't for you, just return it and your entire purchase price will be refunded-no questions asked! You can even keep the "Market Mastery: The Best Kept Secrets of Experienced Traders" Free.

Heck of a deal. Secrets of the universe and if you don't believe them you can get your money back.

-L

[Harooki2]

I trade - now professionally- and make money. And I love Larry Williams. He is a prolific researcher and dynamic individual. Being both has brought him his share of trading problems - compliance, etc. He spews out information within which are hidden gems for traders. However, a new trader can go bankrupt with his material because it covers so much ground and gets misunderstood.
I know that he personally answers all his email; and it is monumental, because he's the most recognizable face in futures trading. He has been considerate enough to answer every question I've ever asked him, and he doesn't even know me as a client.
Just be careful with any information you buy, but that applies to anyone in this business. I believe him to be honest, but you can still get killed with his stuff. I know for a fact that he trades for his own account, and he did turn $10K into a million -- with great money management and a strategy that nobody in their right mind would ever actually implement for anything other than a contest.

[BARLI]

Hey thanks to everyone who answered my post ! Although i posted in in January, i just saw some good replies that were posted in March. So here i am telling you how the life been treating me for these last 3 -4months.
After doing some research on the net i found that Larry is really a great trader.Why? Just because this guy created the indicators that almost each charting software for commodiites and stocks have. Second thing is that he is a past board member of the National Futures Association and the recipient of numerous awards, what i also liked about him that he is Futures Magazine's first Doctor of Futures Award and the Omega Research Lifetime Achievement Award. so sounds like i really can trust him. Now let's answer to those who wrote the posts after i got to know Larry's stuff:

I have never dealt with the guy or taken any of his courses but i would be very leery of a guy who is offering to teach you something that is available for free on the Internet. Also, in terms of his success as a trader, i wouldn't believe the hype until i saw his audited trading journal. Also, the fact that he has been a trading legend for the past 40 years, and is busy selling people information that he paid 375, 000 for a couple hundred dollars also SMELLS really fishy..

See William Larry doesn't really need your or my money, just becuase this guy has already made his money in this game. that's why i love about him. 200$ is something more symbolic than a price for his tradin techniques, maybe he's just like original Turtle, who decided to give away the Turtle System for free from the web site. By the way, when he payed for the Rules he was taught by Rassel Sands, one of the original turtles who was enroled into Rich's first class, and then he was withdrawn from the porgram because of his low performance as c.f. said on this forum. I don't know exactly if he bought the rules from Rassel, Larry just said that his favourite turtle is Rassel. At that time it was very popular for people to buy the systems, so i don't doubt the fact Larry paid that much for the Turtle system( by the way he got it very simplified fromone of the original turtles,talking about 20 days high/low entry and 10 day high/low exit technique without even mentioning N position sizing).

Just because you can grab the low hanging fruit, doesn't mean you should...Promises of being given the secrets to trading and then making tons of money, when you really think about it, is rather ridiculous.

William, Larry never promised you gonna make a lot of money, what i liked is that in the very beggining he warns the reader that it's a risky stuff and that if you still thinking of doing that than keep on reading it. He always mentioned about the other side of the medal: losing money. in the vidoe tapes he is mentioning a few sad accidents:6 of his friends commited suicide from trading commodities, another old couple lost their house(was given to the brokerage firm because of the loss in S&P 500 market and they didn't have any money to pay their broker). So it's not hype.

can give you, for free, the biggest secret ever in successful trading: there is no secret!. And that's what disapoints so many people that they keep looking, anyway, convinced that "there must be something, otherwise everybody would be rich, right?"

It's absolutely true! And Larry says about that in the very beggining of the course on the manual. Seems liek this guy paid a lot of money and eventually he understood that and is warning the reader.
About Van Tharp. I have been on his web site, and what i found there that this guy is providing the courses and they cost a lot of money. it all seems very commercial to me, no offence to Van Tharp's followers

bobby, i agree with Larry is not selling the Turtle sytem. thanks for a comment!


RangeRover, i apreciate your reply. And the olny i can say is that Larry really is giving me a good insight how to trader the markets as new trader to the game with less stupid mistakes that newbies usually do. As some others already said, his email support is really a big help to a new trader, just because he takes time and commit to help to learn the techniques that he is teaching. that's the other thing i liked about him as a lecturer when i just first emailed him without even being his student at that time.

- Batting .800, i.e. being "right" 80% of the time. He emphasizes rightness over making money off lower frequency (but higher reward) moves. I don't think this will get you far if your looking for long term trading systems.

2 - Gamblers fallacy, i.e. I've lost ten times in a row, this time _has_ to be a winner, so I'll double up my wager. While it is possible for some systems that the serial correlation might work like this, he made a broad statement to this effect.

3 - Law of small numbers, i.e. this situation has occurred 15 times in the last umpteen years of daily SP data with 12 winners and a net profit for the fifteen trades. Extrapolating from a small data set can be dangerous; if his setup only occurred 15 times, I'd argue there may not be enough trades to draw a conclusion.

4 - Almost no discussion of money management.

5 - A profit objective angle measuring do-hickey. The only hitch is that his "Target Shooter" gives different objectives depending in the scaling for price and time on your chart. Doh!

I don't have Batting 800 course, but i got Cracking .... one. it has an audio tape that explains the tools Larry has been using in his trading championship and some other agressive and more conservative money management techniques. There's no talk about gambling at all. Sometimes people confuse me with that. Larry just says: Don't Bet Big in order to Win Big. he is refering the old sentence we all know to casinos wich is true casinos want our money so they tell us "to bet big"( so we will go bust). Target Shooter and other exit techniques like Volotility Stop and Donchian's trailing stop are explained .
leonardo thanks a lot for your post. the fact that Larry is an active trader is something that makes you feel on the right track as a newbie just because this guy has been in a business for a long time. of course his experience helps in answering all sorts of questions about this game

but you can still get killed with his stuff

Just wanted to know what do you mean by that? Was your point that the info he is giving about how to trader markets can be understood in a different way for those who are new to the game and that actually gonna kill em?