Search found 367 matches
- Tue Apr 03, 2007 5:33 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Cats out of the BAG LTTF VS SWINGING
- Replies: 34
- Views: 40008
- Tue Mar 27, 2007 11:37 am
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Very Long Term Trend Following: The Data Implications
- Replies: 37
- Views: 45808
Angelo, I don't want to seem rude but it appears to me that you did not actually go through the process of the test that sluggo outlined. Did you actually run the test or did you just make the assumption that you knew the answer without actually performing the steps of the test as sluggo outlined? I...
- Tue Mar 27, 2007 8:47 am
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Rnd Entry or Rnd Exit - Different Sides of the Same Coin
- Replies: 2
- Views: 5954
The recent series of conversations are very interesting as they hit upon what I consider to be one of the major breakthroughs in thinking about trading that I personally made a few years back. Namely that the big picture matters much more than the specifics. Whether or not you traded using a 300-day...
- Fri Mar 23, 2007 7:14 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Your advice: what's a reasonable way to test RANDOM EXITS?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 14457
- Thu Mar 22, 2007 6:50 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Your advice: what's a reasonable way to test RANDOM EXITS?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 14457
I've tested using both #1 and a close cousin to #2, namely an exit that was a random number of days between some minimum and maximum. For example, randomly exiting between 20 and 150 days after entry. I have not tested using a distribution as you outlined in #2 but this is certainly an interesting i...
- Thu Mar 01, 2007 10:00 am
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: In your experience as a system trader... 80/40 or 40/40 ?
- Replies: 46
- Views: 50882
nickmar, Excellent idea. Since individual markets are often in different states, trending or not, volatile or not, etc. scrambling the portfolio gives you a better sense of the range of potential outcomes which might occur. This too is a form of Monte-Carlo simulation and a good addition to the robu...
- Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:30 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: In your experience as a system trader... 80/40 or 40/40 ?
- Replies: 46
- Views: 50882
zentrader, Sorry, I must disagree. If you take past data and then determine that a certain set of characteristics are sufficient to define that data, you can then proceed to generate new data using those characteristics, I don't doubt that this can be done and that most people be impressed with each...
- Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:52 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: In your experience as a system trader... 80/40 or 40/40 ?
- Replies: 46
- Views: 50882
I'm of the opinion that synthetic data is basically useless. For it to be useful it would have to be more likely to be representative of the future than actual historical trading data. I don't see any rationale for why this might be the case, nor have I ever seen anyone propose one. The past is all ...
- Fri Feb 16, 2007 4:16 am
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Trading using Random Entries (Van Tharp book method)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 51263
If I remember correctly MT was designed to nullify any serial correlation between adjacent output values. True randomness results in plenty of lumpy clusters and runs. What are you thoughts on this fear of mine? Lumpiness does not imply serial correlation. Truly random numbers have both qualities, ...
- Thu Feb 15, 2007 10:40 am
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Technical Paper on Monte Carlo Simulation by Mark Johnson
- Replies: 4
- Views: 7700
Technical Paper on Monte Carlo Simulation by Mark Johnson
Mark Johnson presented a paper on Monte Carlo Simulations to a workshop a little over a year ago. He subsequently posted the paper to the Austin Association of Financial Traders mailing list. I asked his permission to post this paper here. Mark was the one to suggest the mechanism we used in Trading...
- Thu Feb 15, 2007 10:06 am
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Trading using Random Entries (Van Tharp book method)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 51263
Yes, that make sense. I did not realize that you were testing over different years than the Sharp/Basso test. It looks like if you tested 10 years from 1988 to 1997 there would have been a 100% increase in the acocunt for most of the equity curves which matches the description of the results from th...
- Thu Feb 15, 2007 6:27 am
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Trading using Random Entries (Van Tharp book method)
- Replies: 20
- Views: 51263
One other possibility is that the pseudo-random number generator for whatever simulation software he used did not have an adequate dispersion of random values. In other words, it wasn''t as random as it needs to be for this sort of test. Computer pseudo-randomnumber genrators that are supplied by th...
- Wed Feb 14, 2007 9:20 am
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Anybody using Quad Core Machine for testing
- Replies: 28
- Views: 26550
You will need to install 64-bit XP to get access to more memory than the normal 2 Gig limit but not to run multi-threading when that becomes available. If you are testing large stock portfolios you will probably want to use 64-bit XP but if you are not then the 32-bit version will be fine. There may...
- Mon Feb 12, 2007 5:29 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Anybody using Quad Core Machine for testing
- Replies: 28
- Views: 26550
The major issue with software that can take advantage of multiple processors is that many tasks are not easily divisible. For example, take a test of a system over 10 years of data on 5,000 stocks. One might imagine that you could divide the test into 10 parts one for each year of the test. However,...
- Mon Jan 29, 2007 11:25 am
- Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
- Topic: Pattern for signal
- Replies: 2
- Views: 7101
The problem with patterns as shown here is that you are only getting sample sizes in the 4 to 21 range for the individual patterns. This means most of these high percentage patterns have no statistical meaning. Your margin of error is too high. Further when you have a computer do searching like this...
- Sun Jan 21, 2007 5:45 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Anybody using Quad Core Machine for testing
- Replies: 28
- Views: 26550
Historical simulation can benefit greatly from multi-threading and multiple processor cores since each core could work on a single test in a multi-test simulation. For the next version of the product, version 2.2, we are targeting improvements which are especially important for stock trading. Since ...
- Sat Jan 20, 2007 6:54 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: single moving average system
- Replies: 5
- Views: 5769
There are an unlimited number of different ways to determine if the market may have started a trend. A single moving average works, simply checking for the current price against the price some number of days ago works, two moving averages work, three moving averages work, four moving averages work, ...
- Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:34 am
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Who made money in 2006?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 11361
One can certainly make money trading with smaller accounts, however, the issue is one of risk. Trading one contract with a $20,000 account in many markets creates a large risk that you will go bust if the market moves against you significantly. If you are comfortable with this risk and with the draw...
- Thu Dec 07, 2006 6:08 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Slippage - Interesting figure
- Replies: 23
- Views: 22670
We have provisions for accounting for contract rolls in Trading Blox. You can even get this to match your rolling algorithm if you include the contract month as is possible with CSI data. I should mention that slippage on rolls are generally much, much lower than normal entries and exits, at least f...
- Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:36 pm
- Forum: Testing and Simulation
- Topic: Slippage - Interesting figure
- Replies: 23
- Views: 22670
This is one of the reasons that we included the stepping feature for just about everything in Trading Blox, so you can see how sensitive your results are to slippage, commissions, account size, etc. It is also one of the reasons that we let you specify various algorithms for slippage assumptions bec...